Components of Change - Territorial Authority and Regional Council

Data for these component comparison maps are drawn from the ‘NTOM Demographic Accounting Model’, an electronic Resource originally created by Natalie Jackson and Shefali Pawar (NIDEA, University of Waikato) as part of the MSI-funded NTOM (Nga Tangata Oho Mairangi) project [29661-HASTR-MAU] (2012-2014). The Model is maintained by Natalie Jackson having been further supported under the Royal Society Marsden-funded Tai Timu Tangata. Taihoa e? project (2014-16) and the MBIE-funded CaDDANZ project (2015-21). Output from the model is available on request (

The maps provide a long-term overview of the main components (drivers) of population change across New Zealand's Territorial Authority Areas and Regional Council Areas. Where relevant, the data have been annualised.


Data for the intercensal periods 1996-2001, 2001-2006, 2008-2013 and 2013-2018 were generated using the conventional three-step process described below.

Step 1: First we obtained, from Statistics New Zealand/InfoShare, births and deaths data (based on birth and death registrations) and subnational population estimates (ERP) for territorial authority and regional council areas, for the years ending June 1997-2018.

Step 2: From these data we calculated natural increase (births minus deaths) and net change (ERP at time t+5 minus ERP at time t).

Step 3: Natural Increase was then subtracted from net change, to generate a residual measure of total net migration.

The natural increase/decrease and net migration values were then annualised.

References and Data Sources

Jackson, N and Pawar, S (2021). Demographic Accounting Model, An electronic resource developed as part of the MSI-funded NTOM (Nga Tangata Oho Mairangi) project [29661-HASTR-MAU] (2012-2014), National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, University of Waikato, and maintained by Natalie Jackson.

Statistics New Zealand/Infoshare (various years); Live births by area, regions and city/district councils (Total population) (Annual-Jun), Tables VSB011AA, VSB016AA.

Statistics New Zealand/Infoshare (various years); Deaths by area, regions and city/district councils (Total population) (Annual-Jun), Tables VSD008AA, VSD018AA.

Statistics New Zealand (various years) Subnational population estimates by age and sex, June 1996, 2001, 2006, 2013, 2018.

Further reading

Jackson NO and L Brabyn (2017) The mechanisms of subnational population growth and decline in New Zealand, 1976-2013. Policy Quarterly Supplement 13: 22-36.

Jackson NO and MP Cameron (2017) The unavoidable nature of population ageing and the ageing-driven end of growth - an update for New Zealand Population Ageing: 1-26. DOI: 10.1007/s12062-017-9180-8.

Jackson NO, L Brabyn, D Maré, MP Cameron and I Pool (2019) From ageing-driven growth towards the ending of growth. Subnational population trends in New Zealand, in J Anson, W Bartl, A Kulczycki (Hg.) Studies in the Sociology of Population. International Perspectives. Switzerland: Springer Nature. pp 161-193.

Johnson KM, LM Field and DL Poston Jnr (2015) More Deaths than Births: Subnational Natural Decrease in Europe and the United States Population and Development Review, 41(4): 651–680.