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These maps show projected change in the number in each broad age group living in each Territorial Authority Area (TA) for the period 2013-2043, according to Statistics New Zealand’s High, Medium and Low Variant assumptions (Statistics New Zealand 2017, 2013(base)–2043 Update). The maps show how the number in each age group is projected to increase or decrease over time, red shades indicating growth, blue shades indicating decline. The darkest red shade indicates the greatest increase in number, while dark blue indicates the greatest decrease. Paler reds and paler blues in between indicate smaller (that is, slowing) increase or decrease.

For example, at 65-74 years, the medium variant maps for the period 2013-2023 suggest widespread growth in numbers, in excess of 20 per cent (darkest red) for 58 TAs, and growth between 3.0 and 19.9 per cent for the remaining 9 TAs. Between 2023 and 2033, growth at these ages slows in the majority of TAs, denoted by widespread shift to paler red and pink shades, and is moderately negative (pale blue) in four TAs. Between 2033 and 2043, the majority of TAs experience decline in numbers at these ages; only one TA (Queenstown-Lakes) is projected to have significantly increasing numbers at these ages (dark red), and just eight to have moderately increasing numbers (pale red); all others have moderately decreasing (pale blue) or substantially decreasing (dark blue) numbers. The reason growth at these ages slows and becomes negative in most TAs is because the ‘baby boomer’ wave is currently moving into and through this age group and will then move on into the next one (75+ years), where growth can be seen as widely positive—although also slowing across the three decades. For planning purposes, this disaggregation by age, over time, and by subnational geography is critically important, because it contrasts with the overall and widely understood picture (map for 2013-2043) of substantial growth at these ages, but without any indication of whether that growth is slowing or increasing over time, and whether or how this differs across the country. Responding to New Zealand’s demographic diversity efficiently and effectively depends on understanding these trends. See for additional detail and important methodological notes.